I should've known...
Remember this?
CBS thinks the country is 37% Democrat but only 28% Republican
Guess what happened again:
The Latest AP/Ipsos "Bush And The GOP Suck" Poll
First, only 82% of respondents were even eligible to vote, and there's no indication of how many of them actually went to the polls in 2004.
1. Party Leanings - The poll is slanted 50-41% towards Democrats, even though the voters in the 2004 election were split evenly at 37% between Republicans and Democrats.
2. Religion - Next, a whopping 19% of respondents had "no" religion, while in 2004 only 10% of voters had "no" religion, and they voted overwhelmingly for Kerry (+36%).
3. Age of Respondents In this poll 31% of the respondents were between 18-34, even though the 18-29 year olds (a slightly smaller demo) only made up 17% of the electorate in the 2004 election. I think it's pretty safe to say that by including 30-34 year olds that number would still not have come close to the IPSOS sample.
4. Income Level of Respondents - This one is amazing. In this poll 17% of respondents made under $20,000 per year. In 2004, only 8% of voters were in this income bracket, and voted 63-36% for Kerry.
5. Geography - In this poll, only 19% of respondents were from "rural" areas. In 2004, 25% of voters were from rural areas, and voted 57-42% for Bush.
6. Race - In this poll, there were 69% white respondents and 13% Hispanic respondents. In 2004, 77% of voters were white, and only 8% Hispanic. Bush won the white vote 58-41% and Kerry the Hispanic vote 53-44%.
And:
NYT/CBS Poll: Bush and GOP At Lowest Ever (Another Crap Poll)
First, 24%% of respondents didn't even bother to vote in 2004. So right away, nearly 1/4 of the respondents didn't bother to vote in a Presidential election year, so you can pretty much exclude them from consideration. And given that mid-term elections have even lighter turnout, one can only imagine how many of these respondents will even vote.
1. Party Leanings - The poll is SLANTED HEAVILY towards Democrats. Even though the voters in the 2004 election were split evenly at 37% between Republicans and Democrats, this poll is 37%(D), 34%(I) and 25%(R). What the hell did the NYT and CBS expect when THE GAP BETWEEN REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS IS 12%?
2. 2004 Vote - In 2004, President Bush won by just over 3%. In this poll, of those who did vote in 2004, they voted for John Kerry by +2%.
3. Weekend Poll - Three of the four polling nights were weekend nights. Even the the poll director of the Washington Post has indicated these nights do not favor Republicans.
4. Religion - Next, 15% of respondents had "no" religion, while in 2004 only 10% of voters had "no" religion, and they voted overwhelmingly for Kerry (+36%). Additionally, Catholic voters made up 27% of the electorate in 2004, and voted for Bush by +5%, but in this poll, they are only 22% of the sample.
5. Age of Respondents In this poll 22% of the respondents were between 18-29, even though that group only made up 17% of the electorate in the 2004 election.
6. Marital Status - In this poll, only 57% of respondents are married. In 2004, 63% of voters were married, and voted 57-42% for Bush.
7. Income Level - In this poll, some 29% of respondents are have incomes under $30,000.00. In 2004, only 23% of voters were married, and voted 60-39% for Kerry. Gee, who do you think is going to most angry about gas prices?
And if you like your commentary a little more sarcastic, read this one:
America's Drastic Demographic Changes: November 2004 & May 2006






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